![]() We might as well start with the polls: Despite a recent dramatic outlier, the most recent ones listed by FiveThirtyEight tend to show Trump ahead of Florida Gov. Dylan Matthews Donald Trump will be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading into 2024 (60 percent) That’s why I think he’ll be the frontrunner heading into the election year, as measured by Polymarket (or, if Polymarket shuts down, another high-volume prediction market). Moreover, there seems to be a substantial incumbency advantage to the presidency, making Biden by far Democrats’ most electable option. The last two incumbents to decline an attempt at reelection ( Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman) were former vice presidents who ascended following the death of their predecessor, had already served more than a full term, were prosecuting increasingly unpopular wars, and, most importantly, faced tough primary challenges.īiden, by contrast, is not facing any equivalently large backlash within the Democratic Party. “ Will Biden run again?” is perhaps the most understandable of these speculation cycles, given the incumbent’s age - he’d be 82 on Election Day 2025 - but I think it’s very unlikely he declines to run. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.įor more newsletters, check out our newsletters page. ![]() ![]() Bush would swap Dick Cheney for Rudy Giuliani in 2004! (Neither happened.)īy submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice. Larry Hogan would challenge Trump in 2020! Or George W. Naturally, this means that every such year features rampant speculation about improbable primary challenges or running mate swaps by the incumbent: Maybe Maryland Gov. Presidential reelection years are approximately half as interesting to political reporters as open-seat races because only one party has competitive primaries. (You can read our review of our 2022 predictions here.) - Bryan Walsh The United States Joe Biden will be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination heading into 2024 (70 percent) And we’ll be keeping track, reporting back next year on how we did. It simply means that if we make five predictions at 80 percent, we expect four of them to come true. A very high percentage - say, 80 percent - doesn’t mean that an event will definitely happen (something we all should have learned after the 2016 election). ![]() It’s important to remember that each prediction is made probabilistically, meaning we assign each event a probability of between 10 and 95 percent. Will we dip into a recession? Will inflation continue unchecked? Will China launch an invasion of Taiwan, and will Vladimir Putin still be president of Russia at year’s end? Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl? (This one might be of interest only to me.) ![]() So here are our best guesses - with probabilities attached - to what we think will happen as some of the most important stories of 2023 unfold. As my colleague Dylan Matthews wrote last year, “the most critical skills for forecasting are thinking numerically, being open to changing your mind, updating your beliefs incrementally and frequently instead of in rare big moments, and - most encouragingly - practicing.” Practice makes Future Perfect, in other words. It’s in the name of the section, but forecasting is something that can benefit you as a thinker whether or not you can accurately see what’s to come. This will be the fourth year in a row that the staff of Future Perfect has given itself the task of trying to predict, well, the future. ![]()
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